Latest H5N1 Update From The CDC

[4th Horseman]

GENETIC STRAINS OF H5N1 STRAINS VIEWED

Analyses of H5N1 Southeast Asian bird flu samples shows the two strains causing human disease are related and belong to two distinct genetic subgroups.

"As the virus continues its geographic expansion, it is also undergoing genetic diversity expansion," said Rebecca Garten, a researcher on the study. "Back in 2003 we only had one genetically distinct population of H5N1 with the potential to cause a human pandemic. Now we have two."

What that means, says Garten, is that the pool of H5N1 candidates with the potential to cause a human influenza pandemic is getting more genetically diverse, which makes studying the virus more complex and heightens the need for increased surveillance. She expects further continued diversity in the future.

"Change is the only constant," said Garten. "Only time will tell whether the virus evolves or mutates in such a way that it can be transmitted from human to human efficiently."

The findings by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were reported Monday in Atlanta, Ga., during the International Conference on Emerging Infectious Diseases.

Just trying to keep everyone in the loop here..

till the last change...be done..

4th Horseman

[Guest SouthernCelt]

I saw a sort of retrospective on the history of the bird flu that's led to today's situation. I've about decided the "doomsday disease" media types are driving the hype on this. To hear recent reports about how the human-infecting strain has a rather high fatality rate (compared to the typically seen strains). The summary report stated how many humans (worldwide) have died of what is known to be bird flu and over the last several years there have only been a couple of hundred deaths and maybe 2 to 2.5 times that many total cases. That death rate, given the world population, is statistically insignificant! There are a lot of other diseases with which we are more familiar that kill hundreds and thousands annually that the medical types are no better able to treat or control.

I'm not saying that bird flu should be ignored but I'm becoming more convinced that its main threat to humans is devastation of the poultry production systems (an economic impact) with direct disease impact coming in a distant second.

[4th Horseman]

I saw a sort of retrospective on the history of the bird flu that's led to today's situation. I've about decided the "doomsday disease" media types are driving the hype on this. To hear recent reports about how the human-infecting strain has a rather high fatality rate (compared to the typically seen strains). The summary report stated how many humans (worldwide) have died of what is known to be bird flu and over the last several years there have only been a couple of hundred deaths and maybe 2 to 2.5 times that many total cases. That death rate, given the world population, is statistically insignificant! There are a lot of other diseases with which we are more familiar that kill hundreds and thousands annually that the medical types are no better able to treat or control.

I'm not saying that bird flu should be ignored but I'm becoming more convinced that its main threat to humans is devastation of the poultry production systems (an economic impact) with direct disease impact coming in a distant second.

Well, i guess the mortality rate would be considered insignificant, UNLESS, it happened to a member of one's family. Tragedies have always been diluted by those not directly affected. What "media types" are you talking about? The WHO, CDC? Worldwide there have been 117 humans infected with H5N1, 98 of them have died, an 84% mortality rate. Yes, we can sit here and go over diseases, ALS, AIDS, TB, Polio, etc, of which possess, at least in the case of ALS a 100% mortality rate, yet i dont hear daily of how the disease is spreading like wildfire across the entire globe. Imagine if you will a hypothetical situation where ALS was given all the properties of H5N1, the abilities to mutate and to propogate itself around the world as H5N1 has in the past year. No known cure, and a 100% fatality rate...Would people's attitudes be different? Hmmm...i wonder...

what i find most telling about H5N1 is that the CDC has re-activated a strain of the once dreaded Spanish Flu of 1918, which took 550,000 lives in the U.S, killing 1 of every 100 persons between the ages of 20-39 in the hopes of predicting just how H5N1's viral signature mutations will occur...

but i digress back to reality..as for AIDS, since 1981, there have been more than 25 million deaths attributed to this disease. There are 12 million children in Africa who have been orpahaned by AIDS. Our understanding of AIDS has progressed to the stage that it no longer is an absolute immediate death sentence. Those infected with the virus are living much longer than they were 20 years ago. Yes, the disease has also gone under some mutation, however, science today is able to bring a much rosier life, in terms of longevity, to those infected with this insidious disease. What i am trying to say is that IF, and i say IF, H5N1 becomes easily transmittable between humans there will be no stopping it for at least 4-6 months, the time it will take our medicinal field to come up with a first line of defense vaccine. In the meantime, without anything to slow its progression thru the population, H5N1 has been projected, not only the CDC but other well known scientific/biological entities to carry an extremely high mortality rate, its virulent nature will be matched only by its hostility, particularily towards the elderly and the young.

The CDC, yearly, claims that on the average, 36,000 people die during a "normal" flu season. In some years, due to the particularly pernicious nature of the influenza strain, those numbers will go up. This coincides with the WHO (World Health Organization) warning that among the top 10 issues concerning a pandemic flu outbreak is that large numbers of deaths WILL occur...

In all fairness, there continues to be dissenting viewpoints in regards to H5N1. Peter Palese, flu scientist at Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York, told The New York Times in a Nov. 8, 2005, article that H5N1 is a false alarm. The virus has been "around for more than a dozen years, but it hasn't jumped into the human population." The reason? It probably can't. Dr. Palese points to studies of serum collected from rural Chinese populations in 1992. The results indicated that millions of people had natural antibodies to H5N1. This suggests they had been infected and recovered without becoming noticeably or extremely sick - not the outcome one would expect from a virus as feared as this one.

Also in your corner is this fact. The 117 infestations occurred mostly in 3rd world countries where there are appalling sanitary conditions. The strict requirements in handling poultry here in the U.S. would further restrict the virus's ability to spread throughout the population. Of course, should there be a combining of the H5N1 virus and an existing influenza-a virus, resulting in a virus that can "attach" itself to humans, then all the restrictions in the world will not prevent its spread...

Who knows where time will take us on this journey. Our sojurn thru life is fraught with peril after peril, and there are times when we lay our heads on our pillows and breath a sigh of relief that we somehow made it thru the day...Without mixing hysteria into this already unstable issue, i would only like people to be vigilant. One could also parallel this with "end time" prophecy, but that is another issue in itself...

till the last change...be done

4th Horseman..

[Guest ein042]

Unfortunately any economic effects may result from the virus itself, not just the publicity. It's Highly pathogenic to domestic birds. It's killed masses of wild birds that normally survive it.

The difference in this outbreak is the human deaths as well as the mortality of migratory birds.

FAO

Click on History of H5N1 virus circulation in Southeast Asia before 2004

Millions of Chinese may have antibodies but I'd advise anyone who buys eggs from roadside stands or farmers markets to use extreme care. There is more on this website regarding detection of the disease in eggs and chickens.

[Guest ___ L@the_of_Heaven___]

Well, i guess the mortality rate would be considered insignificant, UNLESS, it happened to a member of one's family. Tragedies have always been diluted by those not directly affected. What "media types" are you talking about? The WHO, CDC? Worldwide there have been 117 humans infected with H5N1, 98 of them have died, an 84% mortality rate. Yes, we can sit here and go over diseases, ALS, AIDS, TB, Polio, etc, of which possess, at least in the case of ALS a 100% mortality rate, yet i dont hear daily of how the disease is spreading like wildfire across the entire globe. Imagine if you will a hypothetical situation where ALS was given all the properties of H5N1, the abilities to mutate and to propogate itself around the world as H5N1 has in the past year. No known cure, and a 100% fatality rate...Would people's attitudes be different? Hmmm...i wonder...

what i find most telling about H5N1 is that the CDC has re-activated a strain of the once dreaded Spanish Flu of 1918, which took 550,000 lives in the U.S, killing 1 of every 100 persons between the ages of 20-39 in the hopes of predicting just how H5N1's viral signature mutations will occur...

but i digress back to reality..as for AIDS, since 1981, there have been more than 25 million deaths attributed to this disease. There are 12 million children in Africa who have been orpahaned by AIDS. Our understanding of AIDS has progressed to the stage that it no longer is an absolute immediate death sentence. Those infected with the virus are living much longer than they were 20 years ago. Yes, the disease has also gone under some mutation, however, science today is able to bring a much rosier life, in terms of longevity, to those infected with this insidious disease. What i am trying to say is that IF, and i say IF, H5N1 becomes easily transmittable between humans there will be no stopping it for at least 4-6 months, the time it will take our medicinal field to come up with a first line of defense vaccine. In the meantime, without anything to slow its progression thru the population, H5N1 has been projected, not only the CDC but other well known scientific/biological entities to carry an extremely high mortality rate, its virulent nature will be matched only by its hostility, particularily towards the elderly and the young.

The CDC, yearly, claims that on the average, 36,000 people die during a "normal" flu season. In some years, due to the particularly pernicious nature of the influenza strain, those numbers will go up. This coincides with the WHO (World Health Organization) warning that among the top 10 issues concerning a pandemic flu outbreak is that large numbers of deaths WILL occur...

In all fairness, there continues to be dissenting viewpoints in regards to H5N1. Peter Palese, flu scientist at Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York, told The New York Times in a Nov. 8, 2005, article that H5N1 is a false alarm. The virus has been "around for more than a dozen years, but it hasn't jumped into the human population." The reason? It probably can't. Dr. Palese points to studies of serum collected from rural Chinese populations in 1992. The results indicated that millions of people had natural antibodies to H5N1. This suggests they had been infected and recovered without becoming noticeably or extremely sick - not the outcome one would expect from a virus as feared as this one.

Also in your corner is this fact. The 117 infestations occurred mostly in 3rd world countries where there are appalling sanitary conditions. The strict requirements in handling poultry here in the U.S. would further restrict the virus's ability to spread throughout the population. Of course, should there be a combining of the H5N1 virus and an existing influenza-a virus, resulting in a virus that can "attach" itself to humans, then all the restrictions in the world will not prevent its spread...

Who knows where time will take us on this journey. Our sojurn thru life is fraught with peril after peril, and there are times when we lay our heads on our pillows and breath a sigh of relief that we somehow made it thru the day...Without mixing hysteria into this already unstable issue, i would only like people to be vigilant. One could also parallel this with "end time" prophecy, but that is another issue in itself...

till the last change...be done

4th Horseman..

Absolutely fascinating subject 4H! I did indeed read about how they have reactivated the Spanish Flu virus; Wasn't it found in a woman (in the northern lattitudes somewhere?) who had the diesease at the time and was quick-frozen all this time and therefore had the virus preserved in her body, right?

Also, I REALLY like your last paragraph too; you absolutely HAVE to be a writer of some kind, I bet you write poetry too. If so, I would think it's quite good!