X-Files I Want to Believe - Bombs?

[Guest Thomas]

I use: The Numbers

It's a lot more accurate, up-to-date and user-friendly than Box Office Mojo.

This is a really good lead. Thank you.

[Guest Thomas]

I use: The Numbers

If gross is 63 1/2 on a 35 expense is that good enough for the production company or is the income mainly going to the theaters so that makers of the film lost some of their investment?

Any ideas about the ratio needed for the original investors to make a profit?

[Guest Laurent.]

It's really complicated... their is a price to release the movie in a lot of different markets (like IWTB who got a worldwide release). Than the theater percentage of the revenue changes with each passing weak (studios profit more from the first weekend).. and you also have to count the marketing budget in the equation.

I really can't tell you what the exact ratio for "breaking even" is... in fact, there is no exact ratio because the factors change a lot, but I think that 2x the production budget is a good approximation.

Spotnitz said that the movie should earn 70 millions for its total theater run, and that it is indeed a profit! So let's keep that in mind and hope for good dvd sales (which has always been a good profit for TXF franchise) so that we can eventually get a third movie to conclude the story arc! IWTB did bring some closure to the characters, in my opinion. Now the mythology needs some.

[ethsnafu]

Right let me get this straight....

If the Worldwide Gross for this movie stands at $68,369,434 to date (source) then we remove the $60,000,000 to cover the production budget then the film made $8,000,000 for Fox without including DVD sales? If that's so, greenlight the third Fox.

Mind you I still don't understand how these things work, I'm sure someone did explain once that even if the film made the projected $70,000,000 that it would still only just break even.

Anyone know what the latest thinking is?

Eth

[Orodromeus]

It's all about return on investment. Granted, it must have made a profit. Say it costed 30 M to produce and 30 M to market, and that it made 70 M: that's 17% on the positive. I don't know how much producing & distributing a DVD costs, but I guess you can add a few percent.

Avatar, despite its huge cost of 300 M and, say, 100 M to market, has made 2.7 billion: that's 575%! Paranormal Activity, which exceeded The Blair Witch Project in terms of profitability, has made around 200 M and costed...15 thousand: that's nigh to 13000%! And the first Sex & the City film made 415 M and cost 65 M: 540%.

Sequels for all these films were or are being made.

A film that made a negative return (ie didn't break even) is obviously not going to get a sequel. But even if it does break even, there are priorities. Both the return in volume ($) and relative to the production budget (%) are taken into account. With such a low return, an XF sequel is not really high on the map. What can save it is perhaps the fact that it has an established brand name and the performance is not very likely to be worse. In any case, if an XF3 is approved, I doubt it will get a budget much higher than the 30 M of XF2. That's fine with me: that means less action/effects and more XF-style atmosphere, hopefully!

As for a MM film, given Fox's lack of interest, I think it has everything to gain from gathering independent financers and build a name in genre film producers. I guess a very low budget film with a limited release and a long DVD career is doable.

This list is interesting!

Figures from Box Office Mojo.

[ethsnafu]

I doubt it will get a budget much higher than the 30 M of XF2. That's fine with me: that means less action/effects and more XF-style atmosphere, hopefully!

Now that is interesting as it was something I had already considered. Considering the budget of the last film and the returns on it it is unlikely, IMO, to be given a budget that surpasses the 30 M it was given last time which surely creates a quandary for CC and FS in terms of telling the story the fans expect to see. I have to say I give CC his due that he has been very tight-lipped about what they may, or may not, cover in a third film but FS has on more than once occasion promised the fans that they would return to address the colonisation storyline.

That said, even on a low budget there's no reason why a colonisation storyline could not be successfully realised. The unleashing of a pathogen that serves to transform the human race into aliens would be no more demanding than bog-standard zombie flick and plenty of those have been done on a relatively low budgets but if the franchise is having one last shout then I really do feel that there will be more desire than ever for the bangs and whistles a contingent of fans felt the second film was lacking in.

Eth

[Orodromeus]

I'm fairly certain CC doesn't have big bang-bangs in mind for the 3rd movie either, which is quite in line with the XF3 that's in my mind as well. I think a calm, dark thriller where developments are talked about less than shown, and where most of the action involves biological warfare instead of firepower (and thus can be done cheaper), is the way to go for XF3.

I came across an interview with CC that dates back to season 8. About the colonization he had this to say: "you're envisioning Independence Day; I'm envisioning something different..."

That being said, I've seen films which have been much more impressive than IWTB and that were done with less than 30 M. Which might be worrisome for XF3.

[ethsnafu]

That being said, I've seen films which have been much more impressive than IWTB and that were done with less than 30 M. Which might be worrisome for XF3.

I know there is a differing opinion on this subject as some people state that you can clearly see all 30 M up there on the screen and others, as you mention, point to films made with a smaller budgets that are more impressive to look at.

One thing that was stunned by was how much the level of secrecy seemed to be preventing people from doing their jobs properly. I accept the need to keep the plot from the eager public but it did seem to be going to extremes in some of the ways they went about. I know the people speaking on the bonus features of the film were all good sports and trying to wave it away but I did get the impression that it was frustrating some of them.

It's akin, I guess, to my attempting to dispense a prescription for a patient when I have no idea who they are or what drug they require but I'm merely given a rough idea of which family of drugs I should be thinking of using.

I wonder how much of the budget, and time to be honest, was swallowed up on concerns like these. I would imagine it was a meagre but when you have very little every dollar matters.

Eth

[Guest Laurent.]

I came across an interview with CC that dates back to season 8. About the colonization he had this to say: "you're envisioning Independence Day; I'm envisioning something different..."

Very interesting quote!

I for one am glad to read this as I thought even FTF was too flashy for the X-Files. I hope CC will stick to what he said and won't try to be more mainstream and less subtle if XF3 gets the greenlight.

[ethsnafu]

I agree wholeheartedly. I was surprised that some many responded to the second film with calls for more effects and more bangs and whistles as that was never what the show was about. Not for me anyway. I hope that if XF3 goes ahead then it is a very personal story that shows M&S's reaction to the unleashing of a pandemic designed to effect to colonisation. Something akin to The Fourth Horseman and The Time Is Now would be very welcome in my opinion.

Eth