X-Files: I Want to Believe

[HighPlainsDrifter]

Being the expert Movie Guy around here, Batman will blow out the competitors. It will get very close to Iron Man numbers or might even surpass it. I still think "I Want To Believe" will still do well for itself since having a loyal following. I know it won't have huge numbers but it will make some good pocket change for FOX and Chris Carter. I wish they would of released it in the Fall instead.

[Guest Laurent.]

Ok.. so even if there is no doubt that The Dark Knight will beat IWTB in the weekend of the 25th... there is still the hope that with good enough critics and box office numbers, IWTB will be able to stay in the theaters long enough to crawl out of Batman's shadow and end up with stellar numbers right? I don't see a lot of blockbusters coming up in the first half of August (I dare you to talk about the Mummy! Even the mighty Jet Li won't save this franchise.)

[hippyroo]

David D. was on Jay Leno last night and they talked about hoe there is some big clever thing done in the PHILE movie, so no one is getting previews. Leno says he usually gets to see moves before guest come on to promote them, but not for PHILE. David D. joked a lot about the secret, but said they didn't want their clever idead stolen and used on a TV show before the movie was released. SO.. there's not much buzz about the movie.

Yes, BATMAN is already being talked about as OSCARS for LEDGER, so PHILES is going to suffer for its release date.

Terry Gilliam was working on a movie with Ledger at the time of his death, and plans to complete the film in an interesting way. He is also upset with Warner Bros. for exploiting Ledger's death to promote Batman.

https://www.contactmusic.com/news.nsf/artic...0batman_1074409

[4th Horseman]

hippyroo...yes, unfortunately with all the hype the new Batman movie is getting AND with the macabre interest in seeing Heath Ledger's final supposed Oscar locked performance, X-Files is going to suffer a bit...2nd week profits are usually off about 30-35 percent, but unfortunately, the reality is there are more Batman fans than X-Files fans...i dont think any of us have anything to worry about in regards to whether or not it will be a success, we just have to stop comparing it to movies that have been in the fanbase of the public for decades, such as Batman, Superman, Spiderman, etc...the first X-Files turned around 187 million on a shoestring budget. The first Batman movie turned 411 million, over a 2:1 profit margin...I have heard that the current budget for XF2 is around 65 million (anyone hear differently?)....i would probably say that opening weekend numbers will be in the 35-50 million dollar range, whereas i would venture to say opening weekend for Batman will push into the stratosphere, 70 million, possibly as high as 90 million due to the incessant advertising and the bizarre need for us to see Heath Ledger in his last role..i would say that single issue will be the strongest pull for Batman when it debuts...

any thoughts??

anyone seen Journey to the Centre of the Earth yet??

4th Horseman...

[Guest Laurent.]

I have heard that the current budget for XF2 is around 65 million (anyone hear differently?)

Actually, 66 millions was the budget for the first movie (Fight the Future).. I Want to Believe is rumored to have half that budget... so close to 35 millions $.

It will obviously be a "smaller looking" film; which is great news for as I thought FTF was too much of a big summer movie and not enough XF-ish. And IWTB won't have any problem winning at least as much as it cost.

[4th Horseman]

Laran....i agree, it should recoup its expense the first weekend..anything after that is pretty much gravy. I am looking forward to its release and hope it is successful enough that Carter can campaign for a MillenniuM project...

p.s. - ..studio executives at Warner Bros are prediction a 130 million dollar weekend for "Dark Knight"...that would be third on the all time list behind Pirates of the Caribbean 2 and Spiderman 3....

4th Horseman

[hippyroo]

Honestly, I am interested in the new Batman movie, because the last one so SO GOOD!

[ethsnafu]

p.s. - ..studio executives at Warner Bros are prediction a 130 million dollar weekend for "Dark Knight"...that would be third on the all time list behind Pirates of the Caribbean 2 and Spiderman 3....

4th Horseman

Mark,

Didn't Pirates and Spiderman break records for 'first day sales'? As Far as I am aware the record, as far as the top three is concerned, with regards to 'weekend sales' is Titanic at $600,788,188, Star Wars Ep. IV: A New Hope at $460,998,000 and Shrek 2 at $436,721,703. I do agree with you wholeheartedly that to contemplate a Batman VS XFiles 'interest rating' falls short of reality. It is a no brainer when pitting something iconic against something that is niche that the mighty man in tights is bound to eclipse its lesser celebrated peer. My own belief is that Philes should expect a temperate response to this film but relish the fact that it is here anyway.

Laran is correct in reminding us that as the budget is half of what was previously stated in this thread this film is in an optimum position to recoup its earnings and place a little cash back in the purse despite a possible stellar reception.

It's gonna be a hell of a ride whatever methinks :)

Best wishes,

Eth

[4th Horseman]

I want to make it clear that i am not dismissing the importance of XF2...i cant wait to see it myself. I am hoping that your mentioned "temperate response" is significant enough to call it a catalyst for a MillenniuM movie....

Ethie my friend...you are talking about FINAL domestic gross (600 million)...Titanic has gone on to accrue more than 1 billion dollars both domestically and internationally making it the highest grossing movie ever...i was simply talking about the very first weekend revenue streams for Friday night, Sat, and Sunday only...

4th Horseman

[ethsnafu]

Thanks, my friend, for the clarification. I am not fully conversant with Movie 'stuff' and rely on you and Joe for the best information. Almost precognitively the post you wrote containing predictions for Dark Knight is now leading the Showbiz Media here in the UK. It seems a record number of cinemas will be screening this and as a result a record weekend is predicted here too, I feel like the only person not going to see it at the moment.

Best wishes,

Eth